Risk assessment of the Arctic coastal nature management based on the matrix approach

Abstract

In the Russian Arctic and its coastal eco-socio-economic systems, there is a significant increase in natural and technogenic risks of nature management, which is associated both with the processes of global climate change in the Arctic and with the constantly increasing anthropogenic impact. Based on the representation of risk as a process in the form of risk-factor – risk-source and risk-object – risk-factor matrices, it is proposed to use a matrix approach to assessing the risks of Arctic coastal nature management. The approach is based on the process of risks classification, the interaction of their components and the impact of risk on the elements of the Arctic coastal system, using expert criterial assessments. The paper formulates the basic principles and algorithm of the matrix approach in the form of three actions: reducing the dimension of matrices of risk components, calculating risk factor estimates Ri and calculating the assessment of the integral risk indicator RInt. As an approbation, nature management risk assessments were obtained for two coastal territorial formations of the Murmansk Region (Kola urban settlement and Varzuga rural settlement), and the most significant risk factors for each territory were identified. The proposed matrix approach makes it possible to map the Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems according to the degree of risk of nature management, to carry out situational and scenario assessments of the integral risk indicator and its components due to the placement of a new infrastructure facility.

Keywords

• nature management risk
• coastal eco-socio-economic system
• arctic
• matrices of risk components
• integral risk indicator