Development of an ice-jam flood forecasting modelling framework for freeze-up/winter breakup

Abstract

River ice-jams can create severe flooding along many rivers in cold regions. While ice-jams often form during the spring breakup, the mid-winter breakup can cause ice-jamming and flooding. Although many studies have already been focused on forecasting spring ice-jam flooding, studies related to forecasting mid-winter breakup jamming and flooding severity are sparse. The main purpose of this research is to develop a stochastic framework to forecast the severity of mid-winter ice-jam flooding along the transborder (New Brunswick/Maine) Saint John River of North America. A combination of hydrological (MESH) and hydraulic model (RIVICE) simulations was applied to develop the stochastic framework. A mid-winter breakup along the river that occurred in 2018 has been hindcasted as a case study. The result shows that the modelling framework can capture the real-time ice-jam severity. The results of this research will help to improve the capacity of ice-jam flood management in cold regions. HIGHLIGHTS First attempt to forecast freeze-up/winter breakup flood severity.; Stochastic modelling approach for winter breakup.; Hydraulic modelling for winter ice-jam formation.; Estimating real-time ice-jam flood severity.; Estimating freeze-up ice volume using modelling results.;

Keywords

• flood forecasting
• freeze-up
• hydrology
• river hydraulics
• stochastic approach
• winter breakup