Evolution prediction method for electric private car ownership considering the decision-making behaviour of consumers

Abstract

A global consensus has been reached that promotes full electrification in the automotive field to solve environmental problems, and Electric Vehicles (EVs) have developed rapidly in recent years. China has gradually promoted electrification for taxis, trucks, and private cars. Due to the large number of electric private cars (EPCs), the evolutionary impact of EPC ownership on the charging demand and even the power grid at different stages cannot be ignored. But the evolution of EPC ownership is affected by many factors, and the prediction accuracy is low. Thus, an evolution prediction method of EPC ownership considering the decision-making behaviour of consumers is proposed. Firstly, considering the mutual influence of the individual mental state of consumers for EPC, the social network of consumers is generated based on the small-world network model. Secondly, to simulate the psychological state of consumers and decision-making behaviour, a consumer-state decision model is built based on the Markov chain. Considering the influence of multiple factors on the individual decision-making behaviour of consumers, transfer indicators are constructed to quantify the transfer of states of consumers. Then, combined with the historical data, the development of EPC ownership is predicted. Finally, the effectiveness of the prediction method is verified based on the Shanghai EPC ownership. Compared with other methods, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is improved by 6.4%, and the evolution of EPC ownership in Chinese different regions can be quantified to provide a basis for related research.

Keywords

• Electric private cars
• Evolution prediction method
• Small world network
• Markov chain
• Individual decision-making behaviour