A delay differential equation model of follicle waves in women

Abstract

This article presents a mathematical model for hormonal regulation of the menstrual cycle which predicts the occurrence of follicle waves in normally cycling women. Several follicles of ovulatory size that develop sequentially during one menstrual cycle are referred to as follicle waves. The model consists of 13 nonlinear, delay differential equations with 51 parameters. Model simulations exhibit a unique stable periodic cycle and this menstrual cycle accurately approximates blood levels of ovarian and pituitary hormones found in the biological literature. Numerical experiments illustrate that the number of follicle waves corresponds to the number of rises in pituitary follicle stimulating hormone. Modifications of the model equations result in simulations which predict the possibility of two ovulations at different times during the same menstrual cycle and, hence, the occurrence of dizygotic twins via a phenomenon referred to as superfecundation. Sensitive parameters are identified and bifurcations in model behaviour with respect to parameter changes are discussed. Studying follicle waves may be helpful for improving female fertility and for understanding some aspects of female reproductive ageing.

Keywords

• Estradiol
• parameter
• pituitary gland
• superfecundation
• bifurcation