Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience (May 2022)

Development and Validation of a Clinical-Based Signature to Predict the 90-Day Functional Outcome for Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

  • Xiaoyu Huang,
  • Xiaoyu Huang,
  • Xiaoyu Huang,
  • Xiaoyu Huang,
  • Dan Wang,
  • Qiaoying Zhang,
  • Yaqiong Ma,
  • Yaqiong Ma,
  • Shenglin Li,
  • Shenglin Li,
  • Shenglin Li,
  • Shenglin Li,
  • Hui Zhao,
  • Hui Zhao,
  • Hui Zhao,
  • Hui Zhao,
  • Juan Deng,
  • Juan Deng,
  • Juan Deng,
  • Juan Deng,
  • Jingjing Yang,
  • Jingjing Yang,
  • Jingjing Yang,
  • Jingjing Yang,
  • JiaLiang Ren,
  • Min Xu,
  • Min Xu,
  • Min Xu,
  • Min Xu,
  • Huaze Xi,
  • Huaze Xi,
  • Huaze Xi,
  • Huaze Xi,
  • Fukai Li,
  • Fukai Li,
  • Fukai Li,
  • Fukai Li,
  • Hongyu Zhang,
  • Hongyu Zhang,
  • Hongyu Zhang,
  • Hongyu Zhang,
  • Yijing Xie,
  • Yijing Xie,
  • Yijing Xie,
  • Yijing Xie,
  • Long Yuan,
  • Long Yuan,
  • Long Yuan,
  • Long Yuan,
  • Yucheng Hai,
  • Mengying Yue,
  • Qing Zhou,
  • Qing Zhou,
  • Qing Zhou,
  • Qing Zhou,
  • Junlin Zhou,
  • Junlin Zhou,
  • Junlin Zhou

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2022.904085
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 14

Abstract

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We aimed to develop and validate an objective and easy-to-use model for identifying patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) who have a poor 90-day prognosis. This three-center retrospective study included a large cohort of 1,122 patients with ICH who presented within 6 h of symptom onset [training cohort, n = 835; internal validation cohort, n = 201; external validation cohort (center 2 and 3), n = 86]. We collected the patients’ baseline clinical, radiological, and laboratory data as well as the 90-day functional outcomes. Independent risk factors for prognosis were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was developed to visualize the model results while a calibration curve was used to verify whether the predictive performance was satisfactorily consistent with the ideal curve. Finally, we used decision curves to assess the clinical utility of the model. At 90 days, 714 (63.6%) patients had a poor prognosis. Factors associated with prognosis included age, midline shift, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), hypodensities, ICH volume, perihematomal edema (PHE) volume, temperature, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p < 0.05). Moreover, age, ICH volume, and GCS were identified as independent risk factors for prognosis. For identifying patients with poor prognosis, the model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.874, 0.822, and 0.868 in the training cohort, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram showed satisfactory calibration in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed the clinical utility of the nomogram. Taken together, the nomogram developed in this study could facilitate the individualized outcome prediction in patients with ICH.

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