A cross-sectional validation study comparing the accuracy of different risk scores in assessing the risk of acute coronary syndrome among patients in a tertiary care hospital in Kerala

Abstract

Background: There are many cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score calculators in practice, which are not based on Indian population data. Objectives: To identify the best CVD risk score calculator applicable in the Indian population. Materials and methods: A total of 1000 patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were included in the study and their CVD risk score, had they presented before the event, was calculated. The Framingham risk score (FRS–body mass index [BMI], FRS–fasting lipid profile [FLP]), the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation risk calculator (ACC/AHA PCE), Joint British Society risk calculator 3 (JBS3) and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts (WHO TC and WHO without TC [WHO NO TC]) were used. Results: It was seen that among the 1000 people included in the study, the FRS-BMI (59.2%), FRS-FLP (61.5%), ACC/AHA (70.1%) and the JBS3 (62.5%) identified a majority as having a risk of ≥20%, whereas both the WHO TC (65.3%) and the WHO NO TC (64.5%) identified a majority of the ACS patients as having a risk of <20%. The sensitivity was highest for the ACC/AHA (87.8%), FRS-FLP (85.1%) and then JBS3 (80.1%), whereas the specificity was highest for the WHO TC (83.6%) and the WHO NO TC (82.1%). When looking at the accuracy, the FRS-FLP was the most accurate with 80.1%, whereas the ACC/AHA and the JBS3 followed at 74.7% and 73.1%, respectively. Conclusion: The ACC/AHA seems to be an acceptable risk prediction system to be used in the Indian population and is also relatively easy and cheap to use.

Keywords

• Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
• Primary prevention
• Risk stratification
• Risk score calculators