INTERPOLASI KRIGING DALAM PEMODELAN GSTAR-SUR DAN GSTARX-SUR PADA SERANGAN HAMA PENGGEREK BUAH KOPI

Abstract

The GSTAR and GSTARX models with the SUR approach normally can only be used in forecasting an event in the future in locations where the data is indeed used in forming the model. The problem that sometimes occurs in some cases is that not all locations that want to be modeled do not have data, or if there is data, the data is not as complete as other locations. This study uses GSTAR and GSTARX modeling with the SUR approach and combines them with the kriging interpolation technique in forecasting in an unobserved location. The case study used in this research is PBKo attack forecasting in Probolinggo Regency, where it is simulated that Watupanjang Village is an unobserved location because the location of coffee plantations in the area is difficult to reach due to difficult terrain / access roads. The results showed that PBKo pest attacks in the Probolinggo Regency could be predicted using the GSTAR model (1, [1,12]) and the GSTARX model (1, [1.12]) (10,0,0). Both models, both GSTAR Kriging and GSTARX Kriging, can be relied upon as an alternative to predicting PBKo pests in unobserved locations or where insufficient data are available.

Keywords

• gstar
• gstarx
• forecasting
• kriging interpolation
• pbko pest