Assessing the trends and drivers of agricultural land use change in the Ramsar County, northern Iran

Abstract

Agricultural land use change (ALUC) is a primary driver of global environmental change, with implications for food security and the environment. Ramsar County in the north of Iran has continuously undergone many changes due to the tourism characteristics of the region. The present study demonstrates the ALUC trends from 1992 to 2022 and the main drivers affecting ALUC in Ramsar County, northern Iran, using household surveys and Landsat data. Six land use classifications have been made for the region by image processing. Images have been categorized using the maximum likelihood classifier. Likewise, utilizing a questionnaire from 200 randomly selected farmers, in-person interviews were conducted. The kappa coefficient and overall accuracy for 1992, and 2022 were 85.91%, 88.86%, and 88.38%, 90.83%, respectively. It was observed that from 1992 to 2022, orchard (12%), open land (4.8%), and built-up areas (160.5%), increased respectively. In contrast, forest (−12.1%), water (−82.6%), and agri-land (−14.8%), declined respectively. Additionally, the analysis of the household survey indicates the high cost of production, the lack of a suitable market and price fluctuations of products, the aging of farmers, the increase in the population of non-native residents, weak policies to support farmers, lack of coordination between relevant institutions, the beautiful nature and tourism of the region, and climate changes and drought in other parts of the country were the most important drivers affecting ALUC in the region. Overall, this study can provide significant insights to decision-makers at the beginning of strategic planning to control the ALUC in the region.

Keywords

• Land use
• Landsat
• GIS
• Driving forces
• Structural equation model