A Machine Learning Model Accurately Predicts Ulcerative Colitis Activity at One Year in Patients Treated with Anti-Tumour Necrosis Factor α Agents

Abstract

Background and objectives: The biological treatment is a promising therapeutic option for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, being able to induce subclinical and long-term remission. However, the relatively high costs and the potential toxicity have led to intense debates over the most appropriate criteria for starting, stopping, and managing biologics in UC. Our aim was to build a machine learning (ML) model for predicting disease activity at one year in UC patients treated with anti-Tumour necrosis factor α agents as a useful tool to assist the clinician in the therapeutic decisions. Materials and Methods: Clinical and biological parameters and the endoscopic Mayo score were collected from 55 UC patients at the baseline and one year follow-up. A neural network model was built using the baseline endoscopic activity and four selected variables as inputs to predict whether a UC patient will have an active or inactive endoscopic disease at one year, under the same therapeutic regimen. Results: The classifier achieved an excellent performance predicting the disease activity at one year with an accuracy of 90% and area under curve (AUC) of 0.92 on the test set and an accuracy of 100% and an AUC of 1 on the validation set. Conclusions: Our proposed ML solution may prove to be a useful tool in assisting the clinicians’ decisions to increase the dose or switch to other biologic agents after the model’s validation on independent, external cohorts of patients.

Keywords

• inflammatory bowel diseases
• artificial intelligence
• biological therapy
• predictive model
• disease activity