Perspectives on climate change and infectious disease outbreaks: is the evidence there?

Abstract

Abstract The accelerated warming of the planet caused by anthropogenic climate change is very concerning, as its impacts have the potential to be broad and its effects widespread. One climate change impact with significant interest from scientists, politicians, the media and the general public, is the proposed changes to infectious disease dynamics. Climate change has the potential to alter disease transmission through expansion to naive populations or by worsening risk factors. However, limitations exist in our ability to forecast the climate and disease, including how we incorporate changes in human behaviour and how we attribute climate/weather events solely to an infectious disease outcome. Broad statements about the impact of the climate on infectious disease may not be helpful, as these relationships are highly complex and likely lead to an oversimplification. The interdisciplinary field of climate-health research has the attention of those outside of science, and it is the responsibility of those involved to communicate attribution on an evidence basis, for better scientific communication and public spending. The uncertainty around the impacts of climate change is a call for action, to prevent pushing the Earth’s systems into the unknown.