Nature Environment and Pollution Technology (Mar 2023)

Assessment and Prediction of Air Quality Level Using ARIMA Model: A Case Study of Surat City, Gujarat State, India

  • H. N. Mahendra, S. Mallikarjunaswamy, D. Mahesh Kumar, Shilpi Kumari, Shubhali Kashyap, Sapna Fulwani and Aishee Chatterjee

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 22, no. 1
pp. 199 – 210


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Air quality has recently been a huge concern as it directly affects people’s lives. An air quality level assessment and prediction system is essential to keep track of air quality. Therefore, developing an efficient air quality assessment and prediction system has become one of the most important concerns. In the present work air quality level of Surat city, India is assessed and predicted for the period from 2020 to 2023 using the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Experimental results show that the ARIMA model outperforms the other models. According to the findings, the maximum quantity of SO2 and NO2 present in the air in 2020 is 37 mm and 18 mm, respectively, with a maximum of 27 mm and 31 mm in 2021. Thus, we can observe that even though SO2 has reduced a bit, the amount of NO2 has increased, thus degrading the quality of air.