The Method of Expert Judgment: A Historical Explication and the Modern Model

Abstract

The methodological problems of the expert judgment method are examined in this article. The author describes the basic stages of forming and applying this method, and builds a model for cases of non-definable systems. The unique nature of the expert judgment method is substantiated while studying a special class of phenomena, which cannot be analyzed with other methods, including those considering the specific state of modern society.

Keywords

• экспертная оценка
• среда
• неопределенностная система
• повседневность
• контент
• модель метода экспертного оценивания
• прогнозирование