Associations between ecological diversity and rodent plague circulation in Yunnan Province, China, 1983–2020: A data-informed modelling study

Abstract

Background Following its resurgence in 1982, rodent plague has been linked to a wide range of circulation risks in Yunnan Province. The most serious public health concern associated with effective plague control is determining how various ecological variables influence the differential risk of transmission. Methods We investigated the population dynamics of the hosts and vectors using large-scale epidemiological surveillance data. In a seasonal eco-epidemiological model, we evaluated the impact of ecological conditions on the vectored flea index (VFI) to determine the rate of plague transmission. Results The findings revealed a changing species composition in natural foci over time. Additionally, shifting distributional ranges of species by elevation may be vital in modulating the VFI. The model estimates indicate that the dynamic VFI contributes to spatiotemporal variance in transmission. Conclusions The VFI could be a critical ecological indicator, allowing for real-time tracking and prompt intervention in the circulation of rodent plague. Understanding eco-epidemiological diversity can provide essential insights into effective responses to future plague resurgence. Author summary Plague have resurged among rodents in Yunnan Province since 1982, and intermittently occurs among humans. Yet the local risk of rodent plague dynamics has been highly diverse across ecological contexts. In natural foci, suggestions for this ecological diversity include high species richness and cyclic transmission between hosts and vectors. Here, we developed an eco-epidemiological framework to position the epidemiological dynamics of rodent plague in local ecological contexts. Our results suggest that diverse ecological conditions may have shaped the local risk of plague transmission in Yunnan Province. Typically, incremental of elevation has been associated with the tradeoff between the increased diversity and averted fraction of main host and vector species. More importantly, vectored flea index could be a critical ecological indicator for plague management.