Sensitivity analysis of the CROPGRO-Canola model in China: A case study for rapeseed

Abstract

Increasing domestic rapeseed production is an important national goal in China. Researchers often use tools such as crop models to determine optimum management practices for new varieties to increased production. The CROPGRO-Canola model has not been used to simulate rapeseed in China. The overall goal of this work was to identify key inputs to the CROPGRO-Canola model for calibration with limited datasets in the Yangtze River basin. First, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis to identify key genetic and soil inputs that have a large effect on simulated days to flowering, days to maturity, yield, above-ground biomass, and maximum leaf area index. The extended Fourier amplitude test method (EFAST) sensitivity analysis was performed for a single year at 8 locations in the Yangtze River basin (spatial analysis) and for seven years at a location in Wuhan, China (temporal analysis). The EFAST software was run for 4520 combinations of input parameters for each site and year, resulting in a sensitivity index for each input parameter. Parameters were ranked using the top-down concordance method to determine relative sensitivity. Results indicated that the model outputs of days to flowering, days to maturity, yield, above-ground biomass, and maximum leaf area index were most sensitive to parameters that affect the duration of critical growth periods, such as emergence to flowering, and temperature response to these stages, as well as parameters that affect total biomass at harvest. The five model outputs were also sensitive to several soil parameters, including drained upper and lower limit (SDUL and SLLL) and drainage rate (SLDR). The sensitivity of parameters was generally spatially and temporally stable. The results of the sensitivity analysis were used to calibrate and evaluate the model for a single rapeseed experiment in Wuhan, China. The model was calibrated using two seasons and evaluated using three seasons of data. Excellent nRMSE values were obtained for days to flowering (≤1.71%), days to maturity (≤ 1.48%), yield (≤ 9.96%), and above-ground biomass (≤ 9.63%). The results of this work can be used to guide researchers on model calibration and evaluation across the Yangtze River basin in China.