Effect of new year holidays on hospital mortality: a time series study

Abstract

Abstract Background Nowruz holidays, as one of the most important holidays in Iran, can lead to changes in the trend of hospital deaths. Due to changes in lifestyle and increased accidents, hospitals become crowded during the holidays. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of Nowruz holidays on hospital deaths at teaching hospitals affiliated with the Kerman University of Medical Sciences in southeast Iran. Methods The research population included all hospital deaths during the period from 23 August 2013 to 21 September 2016. Data on hospital deaths, including age, sex, work shift, cause of death and ward type were collected daily from the Hospital Information System. Data were analysed using t test and time series regression models, in Stata 13.0. Results The holiday deaths primarily occurred in males (57.14%) and people aged 60–79 years (29.20%). More than half of the holiday deaths occurred in the morning shift (59.88%). The leading cause of holiday deaths was injuries, poisoning and other consequences of external causes (25.31%). Most holiday deaths occurred in the ICU (53.88%). Death rate per day during the Nowruz holidays was higher than it was during working days and non-Nowruz holidays (1.36%). Conclusions Reduced quality of services during the holidays is a prominent issue and leads to increased hospital death. Hospital managers can improve the quality of services, by identifying the root causes and by taking measures such as increased and balanced distribution of human resources, equipping hospitals and improving supervision during holidays.

Keywords

• Nowruz holidays
• Hospital mortality
• Time series
• Iran