Research on the reliability allocation calculation method of a wind turbine generator set based on a vine copula correlation model

Abstract

Abstract To consider the failure correlation among key subsystems, based on the reliability allocation method of the series system, a wind turbine reliability allocation calculation method based on the vine copula correlation model is proposed. The reliability modeling method of the series system is adopted to model the reliability of each subsystem, combined with the copula function to model the correlation between the variables, and then, the multidimensional variable problem is converted into the two‐dimensional variable problem through the vine copula function. The reliability calculation model of the copula function model, under the influence of factors such as the complexity, importance, and failure hazard of each subsystem, allocates the reliability of the key component systems of the wind turbine generator set. Finally, through three allocation methods based on the independent, multivariate copula function and vine copula function and other distribution methods, the calculation and analysis of the wind turbine generator set are performed. The results show that the allocated control system has the lowest reliability, and the tower has the highest reliability; compared with the assumption of the independent allocation method, the allocation result of this paper's method is lower; compared with the allocation method of the multidimensional copula function, the allocated failure rate is increased by more than 20%. This paper verifies that the proposed method is not only effective and reasonable but also more consistent with the actual situation.

Keywords

• failure correlation
• reliability allocation
• vine copula
• wind turbine