Multi-scale simulation and dynamic coordination evaluation of water-energy-food and economy for the Pearl River Delta city cluster in China

Abstract

In this research, an integrated approach is developed through the incorporation of systems dynamics (SD), catastrophe progression (CP), and coupled coordination degree (CCD) analysis within a general modelling framework. The developed SD-CP-CCD is then employed to simulate and evaluate relationships among the water-energy-food (WEF) and the economic systems. It will improve traditional methods for WEF nexus analysis through a) incorporating urban WEF connections and changes into the cross-system coupling analysis framework, b) evaluating its coordination with economic growth and a multi-scale and regional disparity, and c) promoting policy recommendations to ensure the guarantee of urban WEF under economic growth. The approach is then verified through WEF nexus system of Urban Agglomerations of Pearl River Delta City Cluster (PRDCC) in China. Temporal and spatial characteristics of CCD in the region were analyzed. The results revealed their performance in cities with multiple economic backgrounds. Also, the fragile factors of each city were reflected by multi-scale exploration. Regional inequality and spatial agglomeration effects were considered. The results showed that CCD has noticeable temporal and spatial differences. Geographically, CCD varied from uncoordinated to high-level coordination. The eastern cities were much better coordinated than the western cities. Due to the increasing pressure of population and economic growth in the future, the upward trend of CCD would occur in most cities. The vulnerability factors of each city were explored. Simultaneously, apparent spatial inequality and agglomeration patterns were observed, with a downward trend over time. The temporal and spatial patterns of CCD revealed in this study indicated that PRDCC policymakers should formulate policies that suit the characteristics of cities and reduce the targeted regional imbalances.

Keywords

• Water-energy-food nexus
• Systems dynamics
• Simulation and evaluation
• Pearl River Delta
• City cluster