Analysis of fertility characteristics and trends of registered population in a neighborhood in Jing’ an District,Shanghai from 2013 to 2022

Abstract

ObjectiveTo analyze the fertility characteristics of the registered population in a neighborhood in Jing’an District, Shanghai from 2013 to 2022, and to provide a reference for population development planning and allocation of public health resources.MethodsData on newborns and puerperae registered in the neighborhood were collected through the Shanghai Birth Medical Information System and Public Security Department information system. Statistical analysis was conducted using Excel 2010, and the Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the changes.ResultsFrom 2013 to 2022, the crude birth rate, general fertility rate, and total fertility rate showed a declining trend, with average annual percent change (AAPC) values of -7.62%, -6.99%, and -4.54%, respectively. The average age of first childbirth and the age of childbearing among women gradually increased, with AAPC values of 1.24% and 1.28%, respectively. In the past 10 years, the total number of newborns showed a downward trend, with an AAPC value of -6.15%. After the implementation of the two-child policy, the proportion of second children showed an increasing trend, with an AAPC value of 7.37%.ConclusionThe fertility level of the population in the neighborhood is declining. The two-child policy has not significantly improved fertility rates, and the age of childbearing in women continues to rise. Diverse measures are needed to encourage childbirths and promote healthy births.

Keywords

• birth rate
• fertility rate
• childbearing age
• urban community