Prediction of abundance of arthropods according to climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in South Korea

Abstract

Abundance and diversity of arthropods were projected according to climate warming in South Korea. The taxa highly linked with temperature were selected for the projection. The values of abundance and richness were estimated using the mean values of abundance and richness in each temperature range. Temperature changes were based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and the abundance and richness during two periods (2011 -2015, 2056 -2065) were projected. From these projected results, change of other common taxa (> 1% occurrence) were qualitatively predicted (i.e., decrease or increase). The projections showed that 45 of a total of 73 taxa will increase, 6 will change a little and 24 will decrease: the number of taxa that were expected to increase was two times more than the number of taxa that were expected to decrease. However, the overall abundance and diversity of arthropods were expected to decline as the temperature rises.

Keywords

• abundance
• Arthropoda
• climate change
• Global warming
• prediction
• RCP 4.5 & 8.5
• South Korea