COMPARISON OF FUZZY TIME SERIES BASED ON DIFFERENCE PARAMETERS AND TWO-FACTOR TIME-VARIANT FUZZY TIME SERIES MODELS FOR AVIATION FUEL PRODUCTION FORECASTING

Abstract

Time series models have been utilized to make accurate predictions in production. This paper employs a 3 year period of aviation fuel production data of Turkey as experimental data set. To forecast the aviation fuel production amounts, fuzzy time series forecasting based on difference parameters and two-factor time-variant fuzzy time series models are used and the results have been compared in this study. Based on the comparison results in the case of aviation fuel production, we conclude that both of the fuzzy time series models have advantages and disadvantages in use.

Keywords

• Two-factor time-variant fuzzy time series
• forecasting
• aviation fuel production
• fuzzy time series forecasting based on difference parameters