Developing a Risk Management Model for Banking Software Development Projects Based on Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

Risk management is one of the most influential parts of project management that has a major impact on the success or failure of projects. Due to the increasing use of information technology (IT) systems in all fields and the high failure rate of IT projects in software development and production, it is essential to effectively manage these projects is essential. Therefore, this study is aimed to design a risk management model that seeks to manage the risk of software development projects based on the key criteria of project time, cost, quality and scope. This is presented after making an extensive review of the literature and asking questions from experts in the field. In this regard, after identifying the risks and defining them based on the dimensions and indicators of software development projects, 22 features were identified to evaluate banking software projects. The data were collected for three consecutive years in the country's largest software development eco-system. According to Rough modelling, the most important variables affecting the cost, time, quality and scope of projects were identified and the amount of risk that a project may have in each of these dimensions was shown. Since traditional scales cannot provide the accurate estimation of project risk assessment under uncertainty, the indexes were fuzzy. Finally, the fuzzy expert system was designed by MATLAB software that showed the total risk of each project. To create a graphical user interface, the MATLAB software GUIDE was used. The system can predict the risks of each project before each project begins and helps project managers be prepared to deal with these risks and consider ways to prevent the project from failing. The results showed that quality and time risks were more important than cost and scope risks and had a greater impact on total project deviation.

Keywords

• project risk management
• software development
• expert systems
• rough set theory
• fuzzy logic
• fuzzy inference system