Metaheuristic Algorithms for Solar Radiation Prediction: A Systematic Analysis

Abstract

In the contemporary world, where the escalating demand for energy and the imperative for sustainable sources, notably solar energy, have taken precedence, the investigation into solar radiation (SR) has become indispensable. Characterized by its intermittency and volatility, SR may experience considerable fluctuations, exerting a significant influence on energy supply security. Consequently, the precise prediction of SR has become imperative, particularly in the context of the potential proliferation of photovoltaic panels and the need for optimized energy management. Several works in the existing literature review the state of the art in SR prediction, focusing on trends identified using machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) techniques. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding the integration of optimization algorithms with ML and DL techniques for SR prediction. This systematic review addresses this gap by studying prediction models for SR that leverage metaheuristic optimization algorithms alongside artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, aiming primarily for maximum prediction accuracy. Metaheuristic algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) have featured in 29% and 12.1% of the analyzed articles, respectively, while intelligent approaches like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) have emerged as the predominant choices, collectively accounting for 43.9% of the studies. Analysis has encompassed studies examining SR across hourly, daily, and monthly intervals, with daily intervals representing 48.7% of the focus. Noteworthy variables including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure have surfaced, capturing proportions of 90%, 68.2%, 56%, and 41.4%, respectively, within the reviewed literature.

Keywords

• Forecasting
• metaheuristics
• optimization
• solar radiation
• time-series