Comparison of Spring Forecasting Ability between GY-WRF and GRAPES in Danghe South Mountain

Abstract

The Plateau Numerical Weather Forecast System (GY-WRF) was evaluated for its ability to forecast spring weather in Danghe South Mountain. The forecasted temperature, relative humidity, and wind were compared with GRAPES using data from four automatic weather stations in March and April 2022. The results showed that GY-WRF had the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) for each factor at station 4, and a small MAE for temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed at station 2, but a slightly larger MAE for wind direction. GRAPES had a small MAE for wind direction, and a similar trend in wind speed MAE to GY-WRF. GY-WRF was better at predicting the diurnal variation trend of temperature, while GRAPES had a better effect on forecasting the minimum temperature. Both GY-WRF and GRAPES were capable of pre-dicting the trend of wind direction conversion at each station, with GY-WRF being better at predicting the diurnal variation trend of wind speed.