Pancreatic cancer incidence trends in the United States from 2000-2017: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

Abstract

Background: Recent incidence trends of pancreatic cancers were reviewed by demographics and histologic type to observe any new findings. Methods: Data was used from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry 18 (2000-2017) and it underwent temporal trend analysis. Pancreatic cancer incidence rates were reported based on histological subtype and demographics. Results: The incidence rate of white males increased significantly during 2000-2017 (annual percent change (APC) = 3.5%) compared to previously reported APCs. The incidence of white females grew from an APC of 1.29% to 2.9%. Rates among black ethnicity increased with an APC of 4.2%. Rates among Hispanics and other ethnicities also showed increment. The rates for ductal adenocarcinoma showed a positive trend in all races, with the APC ≥ 6 % for females and APC ≥ 6.5 % for males. The rates of non-secretory endocrine tumors showed a decline in both genders of all five races in recent years after showing an initial positive trend till 2010. Rates for pancreatic adenocarcinoma continued to rise in all ethnicities from 2000-2017. Interestingly, there was a rise in carcinoid type pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) in all ethnicities. Cumulatively, males had a higher incidence than females; male to female Incidence Risk Ratio (IRRs) was 1.32. The IRR was > 1 for age groups ≥ 35 years. The male to female IRRs was less than 1 for cystic adenocarcinoma, secretory endocrine, and solid pseudopapillary carcinomas (IRR = 0.5, 0.9, and 0.2 respectively, confidence intervals 0.4–0.6 and 0.9-1.3, 0.2–0.3, respectively). Conclusion: Pancreatic cancer incidence continued to rise in the years 2000-2017. However, incidence differed by demographics and histologic type. Interestingly, recent years discerned a rise in PNETs (carcinoid type) which has not been reported previously.