Prediction of disease-free survival using strain elastography and diffuse optical tomography in patients with T1 breast cancer: a 10-year follow-up study

Abstract

Abstract Background Early-stage breast cancer (BC) presents a certain risk of recurrence, leading to variable prognoses and complicating individualized management. Yet, preoperative noninvasive tools for accurate prediction of disease-free survival (DFS) are lacking. This study assessed the potential of strain elastography (SE) and diffuse optical tomography (DOT) for non-invasive preoperative prediction of recurrence in T1 BC and developed a prediction model for estimating the probability of DFS. Methods A total of 565 eligible patients with T1 invasive BC were enrolled prospectively and followed to investigate the recurrence. The associations between imaging features and DFS were evaluated and a best-prediction model for DFS was developed and validated. Results During the median follow-up period of 10.8 years, 77 patients (13.6%) developed recurrences. The fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model showed a significant trend between an increasing strain ratio (SR) (P < 0.001 for trend) and the total hemoglobin concentration (TTHC) (P = 0.001 for trend) and DFS. In the subgroup analysis, an intensified association between SR and DFS was observed among women who were progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, lower Ki-67 expression, HER2 negative, and without adjuvant chemotherapy and without Herceptin treatment (all P < 0.05 for interaction). Significant interactions between TTHC status and the lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor (ER) status, PR status, HER2 status, and Herceptin treatment were found for DFS(P < 0.05).The imaging–clinical combined model (TTHC + SR + clinicopathological variables) proved to be the best prediction model (AUC = 0.829, 95% CI = 0.786–0.872) and was identified as a potential risk stratification tool to discriminate the risk probability of recurrence. Conclusion The combined imaging-clinical model we developed outperformed traditional clinical prognostic indicators, providing a non-invasive, reliable tool for preoperative DFS risk stratification and personalized therapeutic strategies in T1 BC. These findings underscore the importance of integrating advanced imaging techniques into clinical practice and offer support for future research to validate and expand on these predictive methodologies.

Keywords

• Breast cancer
• Prognosis
• Recurrence
• Prediction
• Optical
• Strain elastography