Comparison of the meld-la model as a predictor of early mortality in Mexican patients with chronic decompensated liver disease

Abstract

Introduction and Objectives: Here are several scales used to predict early and long-term mortality in patients with chronic decompensated liver disease; the sensitivity is different in each one. A study published in the AASLD 2002 evaluated the MELD-LACTATE scale with good results. This scale has not yet been evaluated in the Mexican population. Evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of MELD-LA to predict early mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in Mexican patients Materials and Methods: Observational, retrospective, comparative, longitudinal study evaluating early mortality (after 15 days) of Mexican patients with decompensating cirrhosis who were given the MELD-LA scale upon admission to assess its predictive capacity. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis of any etiology were included, mortality at 15 days was evaluated, descriptive statistics were performed, and inferential with ROC curves. Results: Two hundred thirty-eight patients were included, of which 100 were analyzed; 33 men and 66 women, minimum age 27 and maximum 84 years, mean 51 years, SD 11.7. Alcohol was the main cause of cirrhosis, and the most common cause of decompensation was sepsis. The MELD-LA score performed better in predicting mortality at 15 days; sensitivity and specificity were 0.84 and 0.59; providing the highest AUC was 0.72. The results are shown in figure 1. Conclusions: The MELD-LA score was shown to be an early and objective predictor of hospital mortality in Mexican cirrhotic patients. Funding: The resources used in this study were from the hospital without any additional financing Declaration of interest: The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.