مخاطرات محیط طبیعی (Feb 2013)
Predication of Frost In Zabol Region Based on Simulations of General Circulation Model
Abstract
The aim of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on frost phenomena in the Zabol station. For this purpose, the method of comparing and selecting the best model fitted to the series of general circulation models were used. At First the daily data of Zabol synoptic station in period (1966-2008) was prepared. Then the general circulation model data in two separate periods (1988- 2004 and 2010- 2039) to develop a climate change scenario were used. After the providing the basic scenario ,four circulation models including HADCM3, BCM2, HADGEM NCPCM were selected and these models evaluated by statistical methods. The bias , mean absolute error , means and standard deviations of each model was calculated and finally generate daily data until 2037. By selecting the best model, artificial data for future climate of Zabol station was generated. The results showed that the component of future climatic temperature will increase compared to the previous period. Increase the maximum temperature for spring and autumn more than winter and summer. Maximum increase in low temperature is observed from August to February. Frost range in the observed climate period are about six months and continued from November to April.In the future climate period this time reduce to five months from November to March. The results showed that all three types of frost are Non-static .The trend of weak frost will increase in the future and trend of moderate and severe frosts will decreases . Increasing the number of weak frosts and increasing of moderate and severe frosts in future indicates the sensitivity of frost in Zabol station to global warming.
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