Survival Estimation Using Multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber Models—The Case of the Bearded Vulture <i>Gypaetus barbatus</i> in Spain

Abstract

The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is an endangered species with a specialist osteophagous (bone) diet. We estimated the survival and productivity of this vulture in the Aragonese Pyrenees, where the main population of the species in Europe is found. We used a database covering a period of 33 years (1987–2020). To estimate the probability of survival, we used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models with a Bayesian approach. Our models estimated a survival rate of 0.90 ± 0.08 in juveniles, 0.95 ± 0.04 in subadults and 0.92 ± 0.05 in adults. The survival probability increased over the study period in adults and subadults but not in juveniles. By contrast, productivity decreased over the same period. Our study provides updated information on the status of two demographic parameters of great importance to the species and allows us to identify the most vulnerable age classes and to plan conservation actions to improve the situation of the species in a territory that is a donor of specimens for reintroduction projects. The estimated survival values suggest that more caution should be exercised when planning these feeding points according to the use the species makes of them.

Keywords

• vultures
• ecology
• population analysis
• modelling
• conservation
• biodiversity