Analysis and Forecast of the Demographic Situation in Kazakhstan

Abstract

Forecasting demographic processes is a calculation of the future number, gender, and age structure of citizens in the context of individual countries, their regions, regional entities, as well as the whole world as a whole. In the strategic planning of the state’s economic and social situation, the population is important. This research paper provides an analysis of the demographic forecast in the example of Kazakhstan. The purpose of the study was to analyze the population of Kazakhstan in the period from 2000 to 2020, identify features, and forecast the population until 2050. The study used methods such as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, and a method, that allows, to predict the behavior of processes in the future. Using the method of extrapolation, the coefficients of fertility, mortality, natural, absolute, average population growth, and migration coefficient were determined. Based on the calculated coefficients, the population of the republic was predicted until 2050. The study found that the population in Kazakhstan increased by 200-300 thousand people annually, the birth rate doubled from 2000 to 2020, mortality increased by 7%, there is a high demographic potential in Turkestan and Almaty regions, high, low - in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions. The results of the study showed that in 2050 the population will be 26.5 million people. The paper provides recommendations for improving the demographic situation in the country. The results of the study can be applied in the theory of demographic forecasting and in the work on the strategic planning of state bodies.

Keywords

• demography
• forecasting
• extrapolation method
• population
• demographic policy