Influence of the Construction Risks on the Cost and Duration of a Project

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed active construction of multi-storey residential buildings. The scale of construction, its timing and limitations in financing contribute to the emergence of risk factors affecting the key parameters of cost and duration of projects. The purpose of this research is to develop the most effective mathematical model to reveal, study and estimate in a timely manner the influence of risk factors on stable implementation of a construction project during its life cycle. The mathematical model of the study is based on the theory of fuzzy sets, including 25 rules used to estimate the influence of a risk factor. An expert survey of leading specialists in the construction industry was performed and risk factors distributed over the stages of the life cycle were listed. Risk factors affecting the sustainability of the life cycle of a multi-storey residential building were identified and ranked. The result of the study shows that the application of the mathematical model will significantly increase the success of construction projects by identifying the critical risk factors in the phases of their life cycle. Since the proposed model is relatively new in Russia, it should be considered as a starting point for a new assessment of the impact of risk factors on projects. The methodology can be improved, and many aspects are still to be analyzed.

Keywords

• life cycle
• risk factor
• risk
• project
• fuzzy logic