Analyzing Russia–Ukraine War Patterns Based on Lanchester Model Using SINDy Algorithm

Abstract

In this paper, we present an effective method for analyzing patterns in the Russia–Ukraine war based on the Lanchester model. Due to the limited availability of information on combat powers of engaging forces, we utilize the loss of armored equipment as the primary data source. To capture the intricate dynamics of modern warfare, we partition the combat loss data into disjoint subsets by examining their geometric properties. Separate systems of ordinary differential equations for these subsets are then identified using the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm under a generalized formulation of the historical Lanchester model. We provide simulations of our method to demonstrate its effectiveness and performance in analyzing contemporary warfare dynamics.

Keywords

• Russia and Ukraine war
• Lanchester models
• SINDy algorithm
• ordinary differential equations
• system dynamics