The Asymmetric effect of monetary policy on service production in Iran: hidden cointegration approach

Abstract

The main goal of this research is to examine and test the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the production of Services. For this purpose, hidden cointegration analysis and Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach in Iran's economy have been used in the period from 1353 to1399.Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract the positive and negative impulses of the liquidity variable. Then, the effects of positive and negative impulses of the variables were investigated separately on the positive and negative impulses of the production of this sector with latent cointegration analysis. In the last step, the long-term relationship between the variables is checked and the long-term coefficients are calculated using the auto-regression model approach with non-linear distribution intervals and the bounds test. The results showed that there is a hidden co-accumulation between the time series of M2 and production in the industrial sector.The results showed that there is a hidden cointegration between the time series of M2 and production in the Services sector. So that the positive components of the M2 and production in this sector have a long-term relationship with each other, as well as their negative components. Also, the effect of the positive shocks of M2 is greater than the negative shocks of this variable. Therefore, the existence of asymmetry in monetary policy was confirmed.

Keywords

• production
• monetary policy
• time series
• services
• capital stock