Ex Ante Economic Impact Analysis of Novel Traits in Canola

Abstract

This study evaluates the potential economic impacts of ten novel traits in canola by employing a stochastic economic surplus model. Nitrogen use efficiency, water use efficiency, flea-beetle resistance, cold/freeze tolerance, and drought tolerance traits would have the largest economic impacts. Major beneficiaries of the surplus benefits are consumers as well as Canadian producers and innovators. The magnitudes of economic impacts varied substantially across the three major canola-growing Canadian provinces. Net benefits were sensitive to supply elasticity and R&D lags.

Keywords

• agricultural genomics
• canola
• molecular-assisted breeding
• surplus analysis
• trait evaluation