Changement climatique et culture du blé tendre d’hiver en France aux horizons 2070 et 2100 : étude phénoclimatique et géographique à partir des données issues du modèle ALADIN-Climat

Abstract

The world's fifth largest producer of common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), France, has been affected since the mid-1990s by climate change, which is disruptive to the cereal industry, with yields already stagnating, partly due to an increase in hot days and droughts. This article examines the evolution of the bioclimatic potential of this cereal in 2070 and 2100 for 7 sites representative of French cereal growing. The phenoclimatic approach used for this study consists of simulating the plant cycle and calculating the occurrence of climatic hazards on the sensitive phases of the cycle from data extracted from the regional climate model ALADIN-Climat of Météo-France. The results alleviate some of the expected concerns about the sustainability of soft wheat, but also highlight the appearance of new hazards, particularly due to a change in the length of the phenological periods. This research illustrates the need for prospective impact studies in climatology, using a systemic and multidisciplinary approach (geography, climatology, agronomy, pedology) to rationally consider the adaptation of agrosystems to climate change.

Keywords

• climate
• climate change
• prospective
• agrosystem
• modeling