Integrated noninvasive diagnostics for prediction of survival in immunotherapy

Abstract

Background: Integrating complementary diagnostic data sources promises enhanced robustness in the predictive performance of artificial intelligence (AI) models, a crucial requirement for future clinical validation/implementation. In this study, we investigate the potential value of integrating data from noninvasive diagnostic modalities, including chest computed tomography (CT) imaging, routine laboratory blood tests, and clinical parameters, to retrospectively predict 1-year survival in a cohort of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer, melanoma, and urothelial cancer treated with immunotherapy. Patients and methods: The study included 475 patients, of whom 444 had longitudinal CT scans and 475 had longitudinal laboratory data. An ensemble of AI models was trained on data from each diagnostic modality, and subsequently, a model-agnostic integration approach was adopted for combining the prediction probabilities of each modality and producing an integrated decision. Results: Integrating different diagnostic data demonstrated a modest increase in predictive performance. The highest area under the curve (AUC) was achieved by CT and laboratory data integration (AUC of 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.81-0.85, P < 0.001), whereas the performance of individual models trained on laboratory and CT data independently yielded AUCs of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. Conclusions: In our retrospective cohort, integrating different noninvasive data modalities improved performance.

Keywords

• cancer survival prediction
• artificial intelligence
• machine learning
• integrated diagnostics
• immunotherapy
• longitudinal data