Identification of Seasonal Sub-Regions of the Drought in the North China Plain

Abstract

Regional climate variability assessment is of great significance in decision-making such as agriculture and water resources system management. The identification of sub-regions with similar drought variability can provide a basis for agricultural disaster reduction planning and water resource distribution. In this research, a modified daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to monitor the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of agricultural drought in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2017, which was studied by using the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF). Through the seasonal REOF process, 7–9 seasonal drought sub-regions are confirmed by applying time series and the correlation relationship of SPEI original data. The strong correlation of these sub-regions indicates that the climate and weather conditions causing the drought are consistent and the drought conditions are independent for the regions that show no correlation. In general, the results of the seasonal trend analysis show that there has been no significant trend value in most areas since 1960. However, it is worth noting that some regions have the positive and negative temporal trends in different seasons. These results illustrate the importance of seasonal analysis, particularly for agro-ecosystems that depend on timely rainfall during different growing seasons. If this trend continues, seasonal drought will become more complex, then a more elaborate water management strategy will be needed to reduce its impact.

Keywords

• drought variability
• Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
• empirical orthogonal functions (EOF)
• sub-regions