New assessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the greater Jakarta area, Indonesia

Abstract

AbstractThe greater Jakarta area is located in west Java and has a high earthquake risk due to the subduction of the Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. Previous hazard studies have been carried out using various seismic probability approaches. This study presents a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) by developing an updated seismic model for the crustal active fault database, using a new set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), and taking into consideration the effect of site amplification. The logic tree method was used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty of the source parameter components and the attenuation equation was used. We calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) for West Java, including metropolitan Jakarta, Bogor and Serang, which have the greatest concentrations of population and business. We found that the mean PGA reaches 1.0 g or a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, including site amplification factors. The seismic hazard is dominated by the shallow crustal fault near metropolitan Jakarta. The result of this study may be useful for updating the existing Indonesian hazard map.

Keywords

• Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
• Jakarta
• peak ground acceleration
• amplification