Pollen antigens and atmospheric circulation driven seasonal respiratory viral outbreak and its implication to the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

Abstract The patterns of respiratory virus illness are expressed differently between temperate and tropical climates. Tropical outbreaks often peak in wet seasons. Temperate outbreaks typically peak during the winter. The prevailing causal hypotheses focus on sunlight, temperature and humidity variations. Yet no consistent factors have been identified to sufficiently explain seasonal virus emergence and decline at any latitude. Here we demonstrate close connections among global-scale atmospheric circulations, IgE antibody enhancement through seasonal pollen inhalation, and respiratory virus patterns at any populated latitude, with a focus on the US. Pollens emerge each Spring, and the renewed IgE titers in the population are argued to terminate each winter peak of respiratory illness. Globally circulated airborne viruses are postulated to subsequently deposit across the Southern US during lower zonal geostrophic winds each late Summer. This seasonally refreshed viral load is postulated to trigger a new influenza outbreak, once the existing IgE antibodies diminish to a critical value each Fall. Our study offers a new and consistent explanation for the seasonal diminishment of respiratory viral illnesses in temperate climates, the subdued seasonal signature in the tropics, the annually circulated virus phenotypes, and the northerly migration of influenza across the US every year. Our integrated geospatial and IgE hypothesis provides a new perspective for prediction, mitigation and prevention of the outbreak and spread of seasonal respiratory viruses including Covid-19 pandemic.