SIR-PID: A Proportional–Integral–Derivative Controller for COVID-19 Outbreak Containment

Abstract

Ongoing social restrictions, including social distancing and lockdown, adopted by many countries to inhibit spread of the the COVID-19 epidemic, must attempt to find a trade-off between induced economic damage, healthcare system collapse, and the costs in terms of human lives. Applying and removing restrictions on a system with a given latency as represented by an epidemic outbreak (and formally comparable with mechanical inertia), may create critical instabilities, overshoots, and strong oscillations in the number of infected people around the desirable set-point, defined in a practical way as the maximum number of hospitalizations acceptable by a given healthcare system. A good understanding of the system reaction to any change of the input control variable can be reasonably achieved using a proportional–integral–derivative controller (PID), which is a widely used technique in various physics and technological applications. In this paper, this control theory to is proposed to be applied epidemiology, to understand the reaction of COVID-19 propagation to social restrictions and to reduce epidemic damages through the correct tuning of the containment policy. Regarding the synthesis of this interdisciplinary approach, the extended to the susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) model name “SIR-PID” is suggested.

Keywords

• pandemic lockdown
• non-linear processes
• complex systems
• Covid-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• SIR compartmental models