Ziyuan Kexue (Apr 2023)
Evolution trend and mechanism of the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer: An empirical analysis of Shaanxi Province
Abstract
[Objective] Under the background of accelerating the development of green agricultural transformation, clarifying the impact and mechanism of agricultural technological progress on the “rebound effect” of chemical fertilizer is of great significance for the formulation of fertilizer saving policies and green and sustainable development. [Methods] Based on the county data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2019, the semi-parameter spatial lag model was used to measure the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer, and the trend of the rebound effect and the deep-level reasons behind the occurrence of the “tempering effect” or “excessive storage effect” were analyzed. On this basis, the fixed effect model was used to examine the mechanism of agricultural technology progress affecting the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer. [Results] The results show that: (1) The mean value of the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer in the sample areas was 0.250, showing a “partial rebound”, indicating that although agricultural technological progress reduced fertilizer, 25% of the fertilizer reduction was offset by a new round of fertilizer consumption demand brought about by technological progress. (2) The rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer in the sample area fluctuated greatly in different years, and in some years chemical fertilizer use showed “excessive storage effect” or “backfire effect”. In general, the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer showed a downward trend. (3) The mechanism analysis showed that agricultural technology progress caused the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer through three mechanisms the improvement of fertilizer use efficiency, the expansion of farmland management scale, and the “non-grain” trend of planting structure change. [Conclusion] Greening of agricultural development should be strengthened, incorrect conception of fertilization should be changed, and multi-pronged policy measures should be taken to reduce the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer; Meanwhile, agricultural green technology investment should be encouraged, and technology dissemination should be promoted; In addition, moderate large-scale management should be promoted, and “non-grain” change of cultivated land needs to be prevented.
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