Prediction model for spontaneous preterm birth less than 32 weeks of gestation in low-risk women with mid-trimester short cervical length: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background A short cervix in mid-trimester pregnancy is a risk factor for spontaneous preterm birth. However, there is currently a lack of predictive models and classification systems for predicting spontaneous preterm birth in these patients, especially those without additional risk factors for spontaneous preterm birth. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study of low-risk singleton pregnant women with a short cervix (≤ 25 mm) measured by transvaginal ultrasonography between 22 and 24 weeks was conducted. A multivariate logistic regression model for spontaneous preterm birth 146, respectively. The predicted probabilities of spontaneous preterm birth < 32 weeks for these groups were 6.38, 40.62, and 71.88%, respectively. Conclusions A noninvasive and efficient model to predict the occurrence of spontaneous preterm birth < 32 weeks in low-risk singleton pregnant women with a short cervix and a classification system were constructed in this study and can provide insight into the optimal management strategy for patients with different risk stratifications according to the score chart.

Keywords

• Short cervix
• Low-risk
• Spontaneous preterm birth
• Predictive model
• Classification system