Introducing a Novel Method for Smart Expansive Systems’ Operation Risk Synthesis

Abstract

In different areas of human activity, the need to choose optimal (rational) options for actions from the proposed alternatives inevitably arises. In the case of retrospective statistical data, risk analysis is a convenient tool for solving the problem of choice. However, when planning the growth and development of complex systems, a new approach to decision-making is needed. This article discusses the concept of risk synthesis when comparing alternative options for the development of a special class of complex systems, called smart expansive systems, by the authors. “Smart” in this case implies a system capable of ensuring a balance between its growth and development, considering possible external and internal risks and limitations. Smart expansive systems are considered in a quasi-linear approximation and in stationary conditions of problem-solving. In general, when the alternative to comparison is not the object itself, but some scalar way of determining risks, the task of selecting the objects most at risk is reduced to assessing the weights of factors affecting the integral risk. As a result, there is a complex task of analyzing the risks of objects, solved through the amount by which the integral risk can be minimized. Risks are considered as anti-potentials of the system development, being retarders of the reproduction rate of the system. The authors give a brief description of a smart expansive system and propose approaches to modeling the type of functional dependence of the integral risk of functioning of such a system on many risks, measured, as a rule, in synthetic scales of pairwise comparisons. The solution to the problem of reducing the dimension of influencing factors (private risks) using the vector compression method (in group and inter-scale formulations) is described. This article presents an original method for processing matrices of incomplete pairwise comparisons with indistinctly specified information, based on the idea of constructing reference-consistent solutions. Examples are provided of how the vector compression method can be applied to solve practical problems.

Keywords

• decision-making
• expert assessments
• pairwise comparisons
• risk
• smart expansive system
• uncertainty