Day-Ahead and Intraday Forecasts of the Dynamic Line Rating for Buried Cables

Abstract

Forecasting the dynamic line rating allows to reach peaks of operational excellence upon electrical networks. Literature on dynamic rating has mainly addressed overhead lines, whereas lesser attention has been paid to buried cables. However, modeling the dynamics of the cable-soil system is quite a challenge, especially when both the day-ahead and intraday forecasting scenarios have to be considered in order to suit the usual operating tasks on electrical grids. This paper aims at providing a comparison among different forecasting methods, specially developed for such lead times. In particular, this paper: 1) develops a new physical-statistical method for intra-day forecasting scenarios; and 2) verifies the suitability of a data-driven method, which is an adaption of the state-of-the-art approach for dynamic overhead-line rating to the case of dynamic buried-cable rating, for both intraday and day-ahead scenarios. Numerical applications based on actual data are presented to validate the comparative study, and the forecasting results are compared with a naïve benchmark based on the persistence method.

Keywords

• Forecasting
• power distribution lines
• regression analysis