The Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Inflation in Croatia

Abstract

The estimation of the price change effects caused by the impact of external shocks on the national economy is extremely important. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the increasing global energy prices on the stability of the Croatian economy. The effects of the increase in energy prices are compared with other exogenous shocks, i.e., with the effects of the increasing gross wages and salaries and the increasing prices of imported goods and services. The impact of the changes in the prices of primary inputs on the trends in the economic sector prices was quantified using the input–output price model. The intensity of the transmission of the change in price of a primary input to other sectors through intersectoral dependence was analyzed. The results of the analysis indicate that the Croatian economy is extremely sensitive to energy price shocks. The estimated effects of increases in the prices of certain primary inputs, especially energy, on various economic sectors and on the overall economy are particularly significant when considering situations in which Croatia adopts the EUR, and when the price increases could affect the stability and successful completion of that process.

Keywords

• energy prices
• inflation
• input–output price model
• sensitivity analysis