Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used

Abstract

This is the second of two papers in which we study the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on the model and injection strategy used. Here, aerosol optical properties from simulated stratospheric aerosol injections using two aerosol models (modal scheme M7 and sectional scheme SALSA), as described in Part 1 (Laakso et al., 2022), are implemented consistently into the EC-Earth, MPI-ESM and CESM Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate the climate impacts of different injection rates ranging from 2 to 100 Tg(S) yr−1. Two sets of simulations were run with the three ESMs: (1) regression simulations, in which an abrupt change in CO2 concentration or stratospheric aerosols over pre-industrial conditions was applied to quantify global mean fast temperature-independent climate responses and quasi-linear dependence on temperature, and (2) equilibrium simulations, in which radiative forcing of aerosol injections with various magnitudes compensated for the corresponding radiative forcing of CO2 enhancement to study the dependence of precipitation on the injection magnitude. The latter also allow one to explore the regional climatic responses. Large differences in SALSA- and M7-simulated radiative forcing in Part 1 translated into large differences in the estimated surface temperature and precipitation changes in ESM simulations; for example, an injection rate of 20 Tg(S) yr−1 in CESM using M7-simulated aerosols led to only 2.2 K global mean cooling, while EC-Earth–SALSA combination produced a 5.2 K change. In equilibrium simulations, where aerosol injections were utilized to offset the radiative forcing caused by an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm, the decrease in global mean precipitation varied among models, ranging from −0.7 % to −2.4 % compared with the pre-industrial climate. These precipitation changes can be explained by the fast precipitation response due to radiation changes caused by the stratospheric aerosols and CO2, as the global mean fast precipitation response is shown to be negatively correlated with global mean atmospheric absorption. Our study shows that estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on climate is not straightforward. This is because the simulated capability of the sulfate layer to reflect solar radiation and absorb long-wave radiation is sensitive to the injection rate as well as the aerosol model used to simulate the aerosol field. These findings emphasize the necessity for precise simulation of aerosol microphysics to accurately estimate the climate impacts of stratospheric sulfur intervention. This study also reveals gaps in our understanding and uncertainties that still exist related to these controversial techniques.