COVID-19 pandemic: the demographic paradox of the Republic of Tatarstan

Abstract

Background. The purpose of the study is to identify the reaction of demographic indicators to the changes taking place in the Republic of Tatarstan associated with a spread of COVID-19 pandemic. The sociological and demographic analysis of demographic situation changes of the Republic of Tatarstan caused by COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of the dynamics that have developed in the Volga Federal District and Russia, allowed us to identify trends in the development of demographic processes, taking into account regional characteristics. The study will provide information for the development of measures of demographic policy and the adjustment of the measures already taken in the practical activities of relevant government agencies and departments of the Republic of Tatarstan and the Russian Federation can become a tool for the regulation of the demographic situation in the Republic of Tatarstan in terms of the spread of COVID-19. Sociological and demographic analysis of changes in the demographic situation of the Republic of Tatarstan caused by COVID-19 pandemic in the context of the dynamics that have developed in the Volga Federal District and the Russian Federation has revealed trends in the development of demographic processes, taking into account the regional characteristics of the Republic of Tatarstan. The study of population reproduction and growth indicators using statistical analysis methods, secondary data analysis at the federal and regional levels, the comparative method, and the comparison of changes in demographic parameters with the level that took place before the COVID-19 pandemic allowed us to summarize the results obtained and formulate conclusions about the identified trends in the regional aspect in the context of a specific pandemic situation. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study is the social and demographic approach, the structuralist constructivism of P. Berger and T. Lukman, which assumes the consideration of social phenomena and categories not only as a process of constant interaction of actors, but also in a state of constant re-evaluation. The study of population reproduction and growth indicators using statistical analysis methods, secondary data analysis at the federal and regional levels, the comparative method, and the comparison of changes in demographic parameters with the level that took place before COVID-19 pandemic, allowed us to summarize the results obtained and formulate conclusions about the identified trends in the regional aspect in the context of a specific pandemic situation. Results and conclusions. A monthly analysis of the data showed that the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19 in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2020 significantly differs from the all-Russian and the dynamics of the Volga Federal District, which requires additional study of the factors of the observed more positive situation in Tatarstan against the background of other regions, as well as mortality rates for the full nomenclature of causes of death in 2020. In the Republic of Tatarstan, there are similar trends in demographic dynamics with the all-Russian ones, due to changes in the age structure of the population. In the context of a decrease in absolute indicators and the total fertility rate, an increase in absolute mortality rates and the total mortality rate in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2020, compared to 2019, the natural population decline increased almost by 70 times. Due to the high indicators of the pre-pandemic period, the Republic of Tatarstan in 2020 retained the highest position in terms of the total birth rate and the lowest position in terms of the total mortality rate in the Volga Federal District.

Keywords

• demographic situation
• birth rate
• mortality
• natural population growth
• pandemic