Complex networks of marine heatwaves reveal abrupt transitions in the global ocean

Abstract

Abstract Understanding how marine heatwaves (MHWs) unfold in space and time under anthropogenic climate change is key to anticipate future impacts on ecosystems and society. Yet, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal dynamics of MHWs is very limited. Here, I combine network theory with topological data analysis and event synchronization to high-resolution satellite data and to a set of Earth System Model simulations to reveal the dynamical organization of complex MHW networks. The analysis reveals that MHWs have already crossed a tipping point separating highly synchronized preindustrial MHWs from the more extreme, but less coherent warming events we experience today. This loose spatiotemporal organization persists under a reduced RCP 2.6 emission scenario, whereas a second abrupt transition towards a permanent state of highly synchronized MHWs is foreseen by 2075 under a business-as-usual RCP 8.5 scenario. These results highlight the risks of abrupt ocean transitions, which may dramatically affect marine life and humanity by eroding valuable time for adaptation to climate change.