Performance comparison of IHACRES, random forest and copula-based models in rainfall-runoff simulation

Abstract

Abstract In this study, two models of Random Forest and copula-based simulation were used to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in simulating the daily discharge of the Siminehroud River in the south of Lake Urmia basin, Iran. A trivariate copula-based model was created using discharge, rainfall and temperature data on a daily scale in the period 1992–2018. Vine family models and their conditional densities were used to implement the copula-based model. By calibrating the IHACRES model and also selecting the tree sequence in accordance with the data, rainfall-runoff simulations were performed in the study area. The accuracy and efficiency of the studied models were evaluated using RMSE and NSE criteria, and also violin plot and Taylor diagram. The results of comparing the error rate of rainfall-runoff simulation in the study area showed that the vine-based model reduces the RMSE statistics by about 14.5 and 16.5%, respectively, compared to the IHACRES and Random Forest models. According to the presented diagrams, the efficiency and certainty of IHACRES and copula-based simulation models are acceptable. While the Random Forest model does not have acceptable accuracy and efficiency in the study area. The copula-based simulation model has a good performance due to the unique tree sequence as well as involving the marginal distributions fitted to the data. Although the copula-based simulation model has increased the efficiency of the model in simulating the daily discharge by about 5% compared to the IHACRES model, it is not significant compared to the mathematical complexity of the copula-based model.

Keywords

• Copula function
• Runoff
• IHACRES
• Multivariate analysis
• Random forest
• Rotation copula