Assessment of Potential Conflict Detection by the ATCo

Abstract

The main goal of this article is to analyse the probability of detecting potential conflicts by the Air Traffic Controller (ATCo). The ATCo ensures the safety of aircraft and one of its main functions is collision avoidance. Collision avoidance is known as separation provision and this term means assuring the safe distance between each aircraft by sides, vertical and longitudinal minimums of separation. The air traffic controller must ensure a high level of airspace capacity. The work performance is related to high demands on individual characteristics, knowledge, skills and, of course, air traffic characteristics. In addition to analysing the probability of detecting potential conflicts, the study of the most influential factors on this safety event is considered of special relevance since the ATCo represents the last executive section of the air traffic control system and failure to detect potential conflicts could lead to a possible infringement of the minimum separation distances between aircraft or even a collision. In order to carry out this approach, Bayesian Networks will be used due to their high predictive capacity. In addition, a dual approach based on knowledge and real operational data provided by an ANSP will be used. These data are one of the great advantages of this study compared to those included in the current literature.

Keywords

• potential conflict detection
• Bayesians networks
• sensitivity analysis
• air traffic management (ATM)
• predictive capability
• safety barriers