Evaluation method for basic failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on accident statistics in the United States and enlightenments

Abstract

To fully utilize the historical failure data of oil and gas pipelines and minimize the subjectivity in evaluation of failure probability, the concept and evaluation method of basic failure probability of oil and gas pipelines were proposed.The mileage, accident and failure factor data of oil and gas pipelines in the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration(PHMSA) database in the United States were comprehensively analyzed, and the basic failure probability of oil and gas pipelines was evaluated based on accident statistics.The results show that the basic failure probabilities of ordinary accidents of hazardous liquid pipelines, gas gathering and transportation pipelines and gas distribution pipelines in the United States are 1.29 times/(103 km·a), 2.17 times/(104 km·a) and 4.08 times/(105 km·a), respectively, Those of larger accidents are 4.58 times/(103 km·a), 1.41 times/(103 km·a) and 2.38 times/(103 km·a), respectively, and those of serious accidents are 9.09 times/(106 km·a), 9.79 times/(106 km·a) and 1.11 times/(105 km·a), respectively.American basic failure probabilities could be used as the baseline for evaluating the failure probability of oil and gas pipelines or as the basis for risk acceptance criteria.However, they can't be directly applied to the pipeline risk assessment in China and should be amended to establish failure database for chinese pipelines.

Keywords

• oil and gas pipeline
• risk assessment
• basic failure probability
• accident statistics
• phmsa database